Aussie Rules - Week 1

albi000 · Mar 23, 2005

First week in the AFL this week and there are some big matches being played.

St Kilda @ Brisbane
Brisbane have made the AFL grand final the last 4 years winning the first three. This year they have had some integral players retire and are starting the season with injuries/suspensions to other key players. They are up against a grand final contender this year in St Kilda who had a tremedous season last year beaten by the Premiership winner Port Adelaide in the preliminary final in a great game.

A lot of off-field dramas occuring at St Kilda and it will be interesting to see how it is going to affect the St Kilda players and coaching staff. I don't think it will in the first couple of games but if their issues continue then we might see it the teams performance.

1 unit St Kilda @ $1.90 ($100->$90)

Port Adelaide @ Fremantle
Don't usually play interstate travelling teams but in the first week of the season i will backing two of them. My second play for the week will be on Port Adelaide. Port have lost once travelling to the 'House of pain' in Western Australia in rd 1 2003. I'm not a fan of Fremantles setup, but it will be intersting to see if Pavlich lines up at CHF to help straighten them up and add some height up forward with Simmonds gone to Richmond. Cornes should be a good match up for Pav. Port dominate most matchups at all major positions.

2 units Port Adelaide @ $1.95 ($200->@$190)

YTD 0-0 $0.00

jwblue · Mar 23, 2005

Thanks...I will start playing.

I have an account at Mansion. They offer lines to lay half a point. (-.5, at -110) or a money line at (-114). Which line is better? Are there a lot of ties in the AFL?

IS

MathProf · Mar 23, 2005

I noticed that Pinnacle has not postedlines yet
forthese games - when do they go?

Thanks for your post

AFLGuru · Mar 23, 2005

Excellent, a different AFL to follow. Best of luck.

albi000 · Mar 23, 2005

Lines are up on Pinnacle now.

Betting on the AFL usually only involves the money line, only recently bookmakers have been offering Line Betting.

They also offer <39.5 and >39.5 odds where a team has to win by more than these points. This is more popular in Australia than the Line bet.

I usually play the ML but I have started checking out the line as i think the odds makers could be making mistakes with it. I think they adjust the line too closely in relation to the ML odds and not on how a team wins its games.

I think on average only 1 or 2 draws a year occur and if memory serves me correctly we had no draws last year.

albi000 · Mar 26, 2005

Bad start to the year going 0-2

Brisbane vs St Kilda
Brisbane too tough over the ball and the Saint just too sloppy with their decision making. Their Captain and star player will be injured for the next couple of rounds after going down with a broken collar bone in the 3rd quarter.

Frematle vs Port Adelaide
Freo had too many runners accross the ground and Port had too many injuries to keep up with them. I still expected a better performance from the reigning premiers Port but they looked over powered in the middle all day. They are expecting some key players back in the next couple of weeks which could help.

YTD 0-2 -$300